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September 18, 2006

1 Double Bottom, 2 Hammer Pattern, 3 Moving Average bounce --> $355 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's the trading lately? Today market opened with a slight gap down of 2 points. As expected, the gap closed and went beyond it.. Profits today amounts to $355, not fantastic, but relatively a sure win...

Firstly, if you study the chart carefully, you will realize that price is actually poised to form a double bottom pattern with the previous day's price action.

Secondly, although market opened with a gap, price immediately bounced back with a hammer candlestick suggesting that the bulls are in control.

Thirdly, the moving averages are still upward sloping and the upward trend is still intact. Price bounced off the moving averages to give rise to the hammer candlestick pattern.

I immediately longed 1 contract at 1651.25 and another 2 contracts at 1654, my profit target was at 1659, the resistance established yesterday. My stop loss was at 1648, pretty tight and just below the moving averages. This is a high probability trade with all the technicals pointing in my favour. At 10:00, my position hit the profit target and I am out with $355.

September 15, 2006

Core CPI --> Gap up --> Gap Closed and bounced--> $390 profits

5 min emini nasdaq 100

Hi,

Today's the CORE CPI data was released and the market gapped up on the opening bell...

From Briefing.com:"
The August core CPI was up 0.2%. That was in line with expectations, but still marks the second straight month of a modest increase at that level after four straight months of a 0.3% increase. The lack of an uptrend in core inflation was a great relief to the stock market. The total CPI was also up only 0.2%. There is even an excellent chance of a drop in total CPI next month, as the recent drop in gasoline prices could pare 0.5% off the index."

Seems like the gap up is due to 2 reasons, the fall in oil and better than expected consumer sentiments.. anyway, The market gapped up by 14 points and I wasn't very comfortable with it. I didn't want to play the gap closure since for such huge gaps, the market usually don't close up...

BUT, it turned out that the gap did close and I lost an opportunity to earn at least a few hundred ... My play however was safer and lower risk...

I longed one contract at 1648 when the gap closed and bounced up from the moving averages. Secondly, the stochastics... bounced up from the oversold region.. This was enough of an entry signal for me. I longed another 2 contracts at 1649.5.... My stop loss was at 1645. only 3 to 4 points down from entry... and my profit target was at 1655.5 which is a resistance established by the morning session....

At 14:35.. My profit target was hit and I am automatically out of the market with $390 profits.

September 12, 2006

Oil falls--> Market Rally --> $570 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

The market has been rallying for 3 days in a row... Today's no exception.... I did not enter the market in morning session... I was waiting for it to break the highs of the previous day and pullback before I enter...

Around 14:00, market momentum usually picks up and I decided to take a risk at 13:40 when price broke 1600 with a white candlestick. I entered 1 contract at 1600.5 and another 2 contracts at 1606.

Momentum was great after that and NQ just keep on going up... I did not set a price target and was prepared to exit on the first sign of weakness.. In such a market condition where you wouldn't know how far price will run,,, I don't set a price target... Finally at 15:10. after a few down candlesticks... I decided that I've earned enough and I squared my position at 1614 with a profits of $570.

September 11, 2006

Oil prices down --> Market Rally after a week --> $710

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Finally, today was a good day.. Frankly speaking, when the market opened with a gap down today.... I expected the market to continue its its trend downwards...

but... From 11:00,, it started to rally,,, it moved up to close the gap... but I still didn't bulge.. because I was unsure....
At 12:15 when it finally cut the moving averages... I knew the market is goign to go up and I immediately longed 1 contract at 1574.5.... there was a slight pullback at 1580 and I longed another 2 contracts...

I set my profit target at 1590 and my stop loss at 1572, just below the moving averages....

Finally at 13:25, my profit target was reached and I am out with $710... a big win!

September 8, 2006

Ranging market, BUT double top --> $275 profits

5 min EMini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Today was a ranging market and I simply couldn't tell where the market was going..... If you entered the market before 12:00, I hope you didn't get whipsawed...

I was monitoring for the whole morning without any action... Even the afternoon was relatively quiet... although I did see price moving higher and crossing the moving averages..But there was no signal for me to go long and I didn't want to go against the downward bias...

I was about to give up for the day when at 15:45, a double top started to form ( shown in figure with dotted lines) ... I immediately shorted 1 contract at 1577.75 and another 2 contracts at 1575.25...I exited just before the market closed at 16:10 at 1571.50 with a $275 profit.. Not really good results.... considering that I spent the whole day monitoring it...

September 7, 2006

Downward MA + Price Broke down --> $380 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's it going? Today, the emini nasdaq gapped down and closed the gap and even went beyond it.. I did not participate in this price action...

Why?

Because the general trend is still down and I am not comfortable going long. Even if I go long, I couldn't tell when the pullback will end and whether price will immediately revert downwards... My strategy was to wait for it to hit the moving averages and rebound downwards..

My chance came at 15:00 when price started to break downwards... I shorted 1 contract at 1576 and another 2 contracts at 1572.... My profit target is at 1564... However, at 16:00, price started to pullback a little and since the trading session is ending soon, I figured that I better get out fast. I exited all 3 contracts at 1567 with a profits of $380.

September 6, 2006

Market Movers? ISM Services, Beige Book --> $500 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100 Chart

Hi,
As you know, there's the ISM services index announcement at 10:00 am and Beige Book release at 14:00 today... We have to be cautious when there are two major announcements... I have no intentions of entering the market until the beige book is out.....

Today market gapped down and was basically ranging until 10:00 am when the ISM services index were announced.

Here's a flavor of what briefing.com said : "services index rose a larger than expected 57.0 in August (consensus 55.0), up from the 54.8 July reading but not as much as the 63.0 and 60.1 levels in April and May, respectively, thus reflecting a slowdown in growth very much consistent with the soft landing desired by the Fed....."

Mumbo Jumbo... all I know is, the market didn't move much after the news release... it further confirmed my conviction to stay on the sidelines until 14:00 when the beige book is released...

However, at 11:30,, there was a slight breakdown and I had to RESIST THE TEMPTATION to go short.... markets are well know to be range bound before important news releases.... and the BEIGE BOOK is certainly a major release...

Finally,... 14:00 came and the Beige book was released... Here's what it briefing said:"
The Federal Reserve, in a regional survey known as the beige book, said consumer spending rose "slowly" in most of the country and there was a "uniformly weak" housing market."

Mumbo Jumbo to me again...the first five minutes remained pretty immuned to the beige book... But at 14:10, a huge red candlestick started to form and this was the signal for me to short. I shorted 1 contract at 1586 and another 2 contracts at 1582.... I was prepared to let it run... but at 15:05.. price starte to show some weakness with the appearance of a drangonfly white candlestick... I exited at 1575... pocketing $500...


September 5, 2006

Oil found near Gulf of Mexico --> Oil price falls --> Market rises --> $500 profits

5 minutes Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,
How's your trading? Long break after Labor day? Well, it's a good thing that there's an easy set up today to profit from... .

When market opened, it spiked down and I wasn't prepared to short as the general trend is still up. I decided to wait for a rebound. My chance came at 11:15 am when the double bottom pattern was formed and CNBC was full with news of chevron finding new oil along the gulf of mexico.

Technically, the double bottom with the short-term MACD crossing the zero line was evidence enough to go long.
Fundamentally, oil prices are easing and this spells good news for stocks. Most of you know I don't base my judgement on fundamental news, I only use them as supplementary information, that's what I am doing here.... I would have gone long whether or not Chevron found new oil...

I longed 1 contract at 1591 and another 2 at 1595 when there was a slight pause in price momentum... Price shot right up after that and I decided to remove my price target and let the profit run.... However at 12:00 pm.. red candlesticks start to appear and I started to feel abit uneasy... I exited at 1602... before any possible pullbacks after such a vigorous run... Profits of $500.

September 1, 2006

Emini Closes 7 point Gap and Rebounded -> $420 profits

5 minutes Emini Candlestick Chart

Hi, how's your trading?
Emini Nasdaq 100 opened with a 7 point gap today. I did make some money (around $100 bucks) by playing the gap closure. But this is not recommended to beginners as Emini still has an upward trending bias. Hence, I am not going to discuss how I made this trade. Instead, I am going to show you how I made even more money and by taking less risk on my second trade.

At 10:00 am. there was the ISM index news release but market did not react much to the news and Nasdaq emini continued to close the gap. I waited for the gap to close and a clear sign that a rebound was in place. At 10:25, there was a 2 point candlestick up and that was my signal to go long at 1588, there was a slight pullback, but it rebounded again at 10:45 and I longed another 2 contracts at 1589. My stop loss was at 1586, pretty tight because I didn't want to lose much if the trade was not making money. My profit target was at 1596, slightly below the opening price. Now my trade was set and all I did was to wait for price to move in my favor or hit my stop loss. I wasn't going to change my mind unless something drastic happens. Finally at 13:00, my profit target was hit with $420 profits. This was a pretty long trade which took 4 hours and required alot of patience and confidence in my judgement.