Day Trade Emini S&P 500 NASDAQ 100

5 minutes Nasdaq 100 Emini

Hi,

How's it going lately? market activity is subdued infront of the FOMC announcements... I did not trade for the morning session... I went for a jog in the morning and walked my dog.. :P...

ya, you guessed,, its a bad idea to trade before important economic announcements... if you get it right, good luck.. if you get it wrong, you know its because market's behaving irrationally before the announcement.. My advice? stay out of it.. simple.

Today's trade? simple again.. I monitored the market at 1415...and had my CNBC switched on... well,, they said FOMC left the rate unchanged at 5.25%... thats good.. but how does that relate to our trading plan? is it going up or down? I don't know... the best way to find out is by observing the market..

I see a huge reaction and a big spike up... hey,,, I know immediately that this must be good.. and I have to go long... I longed 1 contract at 1790... and when it pulled back 10minutes later,, I longed another 2 contracts at 1790 again.. indicators such as MACD (both long term and short term) and stochastics confirmed the move ( orange circles)...

Now its a matter of just waiting for the trade to work up... price rose all the way to 1807... and showed some sluggishness.... confirmed by the indicators again ( green circles)... I got out at 1805 with profits of $900..

Fundamentals:
Like clockwork, Federal Reserve officials emerged from their meeting at 2:15 p.m. Eastern time. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said it would keep the federal funds rate unchanged (at 5.25 percent) for the fifth straight meeting.

advertisementThe accompanying statement, which is always dissected on the Street for nuances and hints of future action, noted that "some inflation risks remain," but was perceptibly more upbeat toward economic growth and inflationary pressures, observing that "readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months." "Recent indicators have suggested somewhat firmer economic growth," the report said, and even referenced the chance of some stabilization in the beleaguered housing market.

For the first time in five meetings, the vote to keep rates steady was unanimous, as previous dissenter Jeffrey Lacker, head of Richmond's Federal Reserve Bank, is currently not a voting member of the FOMC.

Market-watchers were expecting the rate announcement to be a non-event, but the accompanying words of cautious optimism have driven some buying power into the market averages.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 mins Nasdaq Emini 100 Candlesticks

Hi,

Today's a difficult market to make money... The morning session is a ranging market and if you did enter, you'd be whipsawed up and down out of your position... I shorted 1 contract in the morning session and managed to make $20 bucks only in the end... I quickly got got ...

In the afternoon session from 13:15 onwards, price bounced off a resistance line and a doji candlestick appeared.. it seems to me price has lost steam and is poised for a major pullback.... I shorted 1 contract at 1795 and another 2 contracts at 1793.5 after a slight pullback... Notice that this is accompanied by a reversal of stochastics from the overbought region? And, further confirmed by the short term MACD cutting the signal line... price plunged through the flat moving averages... and zoomed down! I exited at 1781... after price reached yesterday's close, which is a major suport level.... with profits of $780...

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Emini Nasdaq 100 Candlesticks

Hi,
After a strong rally yesterday, prices falls again today.. the key? Yes, market is still sensitive to the housing bubble bursting... existing home sales fell to 6.48 million units for all of 2006... supposedly the largest fall in 17 years... The market reacted hugely to this...

I wasn't doing much before 10:00am.. just watching the normal gyrations... it gapped up, closed the gap and appeared to be going higher, until existing home sales figures came out at 10:00am... Price falls a bit,, but it's not enough conviction for me to go short... finally at 10:15... price fell below yesterday's close which is also yesterday's high... I immediately shorted 1 contract at 1813.... market is volatile,,, i still couldn't tell whether price is going to trend downwards all day....

But, at 12:00, after price breaks the moving averages, and there is no sign of rebouncing... I shorted another 2 contracts at 1804.... now the market seems bearish and bent on going further down... At 13:35, I shorted another 2 contracts at 1800... as price falls below 1800 strongly....

At 15:00, price momentum seems to be slowing down and I covered all my shorts at 1789, with a profit of $1520.

Existing Home Sales:
After a five-year boom, the nation’s housing market cooled considerably in 2006 with existing home sales falling by the largest amount in 17 years.
While the worst may be over, the rebound could be slow in coming, analysts said, given a continuing huge backlog of unsold homes that will keep downward pressure on prices, particularly in former boom areas.
The National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that sales of existing homes totaled 6.48 million units for all of 2006, down 8.4 percent from 2005 when 7.08 million existing homes were sold, the fifth straight year that sales hit an all-time high.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Nasdaq Emini 100 Candlesticks

Hi,
Remember the last week when oil prices were going down and nobody cared? The stock market did not react to lower oil prices... and everybody temporarily forgotten how high oil prices increases inflation and is a drag on consumer spending.... While, today is different... the crude oil inventories grew by a large margin of 700,000 barrels... and this coupled with strong results from the likes of Yahoo and Sun microsystems,, the Nasdaq was basically on fire...

It gapped up by a whopping 10 points... traders should know better than to short this kind of market... It is pretty obvious that today's going to be an up trend day.... However, movement before 10:30, the release of the crude oil inventory data was mixed at best.....

At 10:30,, immediately after the release of the crude oil data, price shot up....I was lucky enough to enter 1 contract at 1802 and another 2 contracts at 1803.5...My job is basically done.... momemtum is strong and price keeps on going up... I am just sitting back to watch it and look for an ideal exit point... At 11:30,, price started to show some weakness.... and I got ready.... I exited at 1812 with $580 profits...

Crude inventories:
Crude oil inventories grew by 700,000 barrels to 322.2 million barrels in the week ending January 19, while gasoline stockpiles added 4 million barrels, much more than had been anticipated, to 220.8 million barrels.

Distillate inventories as a whole were up by 700,000 barrels to 142.6 million barrels; while heating oil stockpiles declined, diesel fuel inventories were up substantially. Stockpiles of gasoline, heating oil, and diesel are all at or above average for the time of year.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Nasdaq Emini 100 Candlesticks 5 minutes chart

Hi,

How's is it going? The market is in a state of uncertainty these days, with falling oil prices and good earnings, it's just not going up enough... Yes, my take is that the market is poised for a correction, when that will come I don't know, but a correction is healthy before it moves any further... I would advice novice traders to stay out of the market until a clearer trend appears on the daily chart...

The first half of the market, price was going up.. However, it faced much resistance when going up, you can tell this from the price action.... I did nothing when it went up.... because, I didn't like the price action and I still believe that the short term bias is down, at least for the past few days...

At 14:00, my chance came when price broke the moving averages at one go, this was preceded by the short term MACD cutting the zero line and the mid-term MACD cutting its signal line... I shorted 1 contract at 1797.5 and another 2 contracts at 1794... price plunged nicely.. and went below the low established in the morning session... at 14:30, however, I began to see some counter movements and this alerted me to prepare my exit.... finally I got out at 1786... with profits of $550...

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Nasdaq Emini 100 Candlestick

Hi,

How's it going? Fundamentalists will tell you that the market is still strong and the recently released economic data suggests that the economy is still in tact, with the housing sector on the rise again....
Well, how's that going to translate into profits for you? If you went long over the past few days, I guarantee that you'd have lost your pants!

From a technical perspective, yes, the long term uptrend is still in tact, but that is when viewed over a daily chart. Even so, the uptrend is slowly down and not drawing a nice straight line... you'd know the market is sick.
Yes, sick.... will oil prices falling that much, the market's not even bulging to the upside... something strange's going on... The alert trader will know better than to go long...

Today market gapped up by around 6 points.... it became apparent to me in the first 5 minutes that this gap is going to close, I was watching the Dow and S&P 100 futures plus the Russell 2000, all showed weakness.. I immediately shorted 1 contract at 1812 and another 2 contracts at 1820 shorting after....

True enough the gap closed at around 9:35... very pretty fast action eh? But I stayed on beyond that... all the markets were displaying weakness and there is no reason to exit too early... market tried to suppport price at the 1805 level,, but finally it gave way and plunged!! Yes! that's the nicest feeling,,, when you see your position snowballing in the profits...

At 10:10,, there was a slight pullback and I thought it's better not to be too greedy... I made enough for the day.. I exit all 3 contracts at 1791 with $1180 profits...

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Nasdaq Emini 100 Candlesticks.

Hi,

The market gapped down today by around 3 points... normally, I would expect such a small gap to close and the Dow is still in positive territory in the first few minutes of market open... However, Nasdaq 100 simply went down..notice that the long term MACD also crossed the zero-line.. This gave me a strong signal to go short... I shorted 1 contract at 1831.... the final break came at 10:00 when price broke below 1830.... and price simply plunged further down all the way ....
there was consolidation at 1820,, but at 12:15... I shorted another 2 contracts at 1817 as price broke down... market seems to be in free fall until 15:00 when there is a slight pullback... I became wary and got ready to exit.... at 15:10, I exited at 1806 with $940 profits....

Bernanke's speech:
Overnight on Wall Street, stocks retreated as hopes of an interest rate cut faded on the back of a guarded speech by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, while muted numbers from Apple (nasdaq: AAPL - news - people ) also weighed on technology stocks.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Nasdaq Emini 100 Candlestick

Hi,

Oil drops further and market reacted in a positive way... I was waiting for a chance to go long... my chance came at 10:40 am and there was a hammer candlestick.. following a bounce off the moving averages... This is accompanied by an upturn in stochastics... I went long 1 contract at 1848... and another 2 contracts at 1851.. my profit target is at 1858 which is the previous day high... a little bit of patience and my target was hit at 11:50... simple trade... no stress with $480 profits...

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Emini Nasdaq 100 Candlestick

Daily Emini Nasdaq 100 Candlestick

Hi,

I wonder where the market's going.... lots of events unfolding here,,, with oil down to $53.30 a barrel and Alcoa posting good numbers.... The market should be bullish... however,, there isn't much reaction to the news... and we are in a potentially capricious territory as price nears the previous high at 1850... this is a strong resistance region....

The market condition today is best described as ranging... I although there is a surge in price in the morning session, I didn't like what stochastics and MACD were telling me... too much noise... no clear picture... there wasn't enough signal for me to take the plunge in... The afternoon session is ranging ( see boxed )....

If you look at the daily chart, MACD is crossing the signal line upwards.. this is bullish... BUT, if you look at the 5 minutes chart, you will see long-term MACD trying to cut the signal line downwards,,, suggesting bearishness.... Market conundrum.. its best to stay out until market digests all the information... and a clearer picture unfolds...

Fundamentals from Briefing.com
Market Not Accentuating the Positive:
The market reaction to news is a bit worrisome.
The decline in oil prices has been spectacular. Yet, it is providing little support to the broad market. There is no doubt that it will bring profits down in the energy sector, but lower oil prices are unquestionably good for the overall economy. The lack of response to the move is noteworthy. Oil is down $0.70 this morning to $53.30 a barrel.

The reaction to good news on earnings reports is somewhat better. Genentech produced a fine report yesterday, and the stock has traded higher pre-market. Alcoa posted good numbers on Tuesday after the close and was up yesterday. It is still very early, but our sense is that these reports have stirred little optimism about the upcoming reports overall. The focus is more towards the potential negative of guidance for 2007.

The news today includes a surprise hike in UK interest rates. That won't have any impact on the Fed's decisions on rates, but it serves as a reminder that central bankers are as a breed inclined to fire first and ask questions later when it comes to fighting inflation.

The UK move was partly based on tight resource utilization. This morning, new claims for unemployment for the week ended January 5 fell to 299,000 from 325,000 the week before. The data is often distorted in a holiday week, but this serves as a reminder that the Fed remains concerned about the potential inflationary impact of tight labor market conditions.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Nasdaq Emini Candlestick chart

Hi,

Just when you think market is going down or ranging... something happens and its up again.. while in our case, its lower oil prices, lower initial claims,,, etc.. what have you... yup lots of fundamentals to analyse..

But, look here, today's trade is SIMPLE! bottomline --> its an uptrend for the past few days --> only think about long trades.

Today's market opened with a gap down.. and you see prices bouncing off the 1800 support, this is a good sign, meaning we should go long. I longed 1 contract at 1803, at the same time, you can see stochastics flicking up from the oversold region... then price pulled back and I entered another 2 contracts at 1807.5.... My profit target? simple, yesterday's high at 1818.... at 10:45, my target was hit and I am out with $710 profits...

Fundamentals from Briefing.com:
Highlights
Initial claims fell -26K to 299K in the week of Jan 6.
Continued claims fell -3K to 2.4128 mln in the week of Dec 30.

Key Factors
Initial claims fall to the lowest level since mid-July.
4-week average of 315K is back in the range seen from June through early November.
Continued claims is at a 3 month low.
Leaves 4 week average 75K above mid-May's 5 year low.
Claims continue to reflect a tight labor market.

Big Picture
Initial claims broke above the remarkably tight range held in the 4-week average for 5 months but have returned after the holiday spike. Continued claims showed a five year low in the 4-week average in mid May and now stand 75K higher. The continued low levels reflect the thin available labor supply which make a qualified hire difficult to find and therefore leaving less layoffs. A good read on the labor market as net hiring slows with the economy.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq Emini 100 Candlesticks

Hi,

The market is undecided lately... I would advice novice traders to stay out of the market.... generally, i would say that it is still in a short term uptrend... although on a mid-term basis, it is better described as being ranging.... Today's trade is a momentum play... After hitting a high of 1807, price plunged sharply all the way down hitting the moving averages... I longed 1 contract at 1795 when a white candlestick appeared suggesting that price reversal is going to take place... also, stochastics has turned up from the oversold region... at 10:30 am, I longed another 2 contracts at 1798.. .. price again hit the high of 1807 and pulled back... After seeing some sign of weakness in price action, I got out at 1805 with $480 profits... Well, that's all for the day.. traders are better at rest in a ranging market...

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Nasdaq Emini 100 Candlestick

Hi,

Today's trade lasted quite a while.... After the ISM index announcement, there wasn't much reaction but at around 10:40, price action began to change... we can see one white candlestick cutting through all the moving averages and the Mid-term MACD and Long-term MACD cutting the zero line, this is a powerful synchronization of techinical signals for entry... I immediately longed 1 contract at 1787.5 ....

Price consolidated and was ranging for a few hours until 14:30 when there was a slight break out.... this was further confirmed by the short term MACD cutting its signal line ... I longed 2 contracts at 1798.5 ,,, the Mid-term MACD following suit by cutting its signal line which further strengthen the entry signal.... I exited at 1810.5 at 15:45.... when there is a slight pullback... pocketing profits of $940...

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Nasdaq 100 Emini Chart

Hi,

I hope you captured this... FOMC minutes announcement at 14:00.... If you are in the forex market, you will know how fast markets react.. but in the index futures market,, there is still some reaction time and opportunity to make a profit...
This trade is simple.. no brainer... I simply waited till 14:00 for the announcement.. and I monitored the movement for around 5 minutes and decided that price was going to go down....

I short 1 contract at 1782... another 2 contracts at 1771 when my conviction is proven correct... I covered at 1756.. after a slight pullback with $1120 in profits... This is a trade I feel everyone should capture..

Some Fundamentals:
The report that took a toll on stocks was the FOMC minutes release. Though some committee members wanted the statement to more reflect concerns about economic slowing, this didn’t occur and the Fed kept a focus on inflation risks. This could change come Friday if the jobs report comes out weaker than expected.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)