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Consumer Confidence up --> Long? NOT NECESSARY --> $630 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's your holiday yesterday? Today's the first trading day of the week.. and There is big news to be announced --> Consumer Confidence.
It came in better than expected and if you are a fundamentalist, you would have gone lone at 10:00 after the report is announced.

But if you noticed, price movements is highly volatile from 10:00 till 11:00 am and at 11:30 am it started to go down.. I simply couldn't tell where the market is going... So I did what I did best ---> BE PATIENT AND WAIT.

Chance came at around 13:30 when Stochastics moved from the oversold region upwards... Although I don't really like the symmetry of stochastics and Short-term MACD, my stop loss was tight, at 1890.. so I figured that risk/reward is good enough for me to take some risk..

I entered 1 contract at 1892.5 and another 2 contracts at 1897 .... after that, although it was not all smooth sailing, price went as expected.. it inche up slowly... I exited at the close at 1906 when a red candle appeared... with profits of $630.


Fundamentals
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence rose more sharply than expected in May as a more upbeat business outlook and a surging stock market overshadowed the impact of record gasoline prices, a survey showed on Tuesday.

The Conference Board said its index of consumer sentiment climbed to 108.0 in May versus April's upwardly adjusted 106.3.

The median forecast of economists polled by Reuters was for 105.0, seen rebounding from an originally reported 104 in April, which was the lowest reading since August.

"All in all, confidence levels continue to suggest growth, albeit at a slow pace," Lynn Franco, the Conference Board's director of research said in a statement.

However, record gasoline prices have fanned consumers' inflation worries, pushing the report's inflation gauge to its highest level in a year.

"The short-term outlook remains cautious, and rising gasoline prices are having a negative impact on consumers' inflation expectations," Franco said.

U.S. stocks added to earlier gains after the confidence data suggested that consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy, would hold steady despite rising fuel costs and a weak housing market.

Bond prices fell as prospects of moderate growth would leave little room for the Federal Reserve to trim interest rates with inflation expectations on the rise.

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Comments

Hey Michael,

I've been reading through your blog archives (again) and today's trading has me confused. You say the trade was not all smooth sailing, isn't that kind of an understatement?

After doubling up, the trade went right back to your entry price. That must have hurt.

What did you use for a stop? In hindsight it worked well, but why did you hold?

Thank you for such a consistently informative site, it's one of my favorites.

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