Day Trade Emini S&P 500 NASDAQ 100

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

If you have been following my blog, I am sure you would have stayed out the market before the FED announced the cut at 14:15.. market was ranging and price simply wasn't moving anywhere...

I want you to take note of the price movement just before the FED made the announcement. The green dotted vertical line is drawn at 14:00... As soon as FED announced the cut, price fell, price was already very near to the moving averages and such a fall had a high chance of cutting the moving averages. I shorted 1 contract at 2227 and another 2 more at 2222... I thought that market was reacting badly to the FED decisions... However, price began to spike up alll of a sudden and I knew that a rebound was going to take place, I closed off my position and entered long 1 contract.

Now, this first trade had already given me $400 profits. Notice that instead of buying 3 contracts to close off my short position, I bought 4 contracts straight away, thus leaving myself net 1 contract long. My decision proved to be correct and I longed another 2 contracts at 2227... I held it all the way till a dangerously looking shooting star appeared and red candles started to form... I exited at 2242 with profits of $1100

total profits = $1500.

Caveat: the reversal trade today is not recommended for novice traders.

Fundamentals:
The rate cut came after a 9-1 vote, with Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig dissenting, arguing that he preferred no change in the funds rate. The Fed on Wednesday also lowered the rate it charges to lend directly to banks, the so-called discount rate.
The bank appeared more upbeat about the health of the economy than it did last month, when it said strains in the credit markets threatened to further pinch the housing market and the economy at large. The Fed said Wednesday that "economic growth was solid in the third quarter, and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat on balance."
Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at The Hartford, said the market decided that the central bank wasn't necessarily ruling out further rate cuts.
"I think that the market finally realized after the initial drop-off that the Fed is saying 'Look, we're going to be data-dependent,'" she said. That would be a return to the Fed's mode of operation before the summer's constriction in the credit markets forced the bank to set aside some of its concerns about inflation.
Krosby added that after giving investors the rate cut, prudence demanded that Fed offer a somewhat cautious statement and address concerns about surging commodity prices. Oil hit another record Wednesday, while gold rose above $800 an ounce for the first time in 27 years.
"I think that upon analysis of it the market understood that you cannot have oil prices hitting almost $95 a barrel. You have to acknowledge commodity prices."
Oil futures climbed to nearly $95 per barrel for the first time after the government reported an unexpected drop in crude oil inventories for the second week in a row. Light, sweet crude rose $4.15 to settle on the New York Mercantile Exchange at $94.53. The dollar fell to a fresh low against the euro after the Fed's decision and gave up ground against other major currencies. With rates lower, some investors looked for higher-yielding currencies.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How is it going? Market gapped down today but went right up to cover the gap... there was some kind of an uptrend in mid-day, but I was not there to capture it.. Short-term MACD was too close to zero line and price action was dirty.. not enough momentum....

The upward trend was losing steam ahead and negative divergence became evident from 1400 onwards... I shorted 1 contract at 2227 when price broke down in a huge red candlestick to cut my moving average. I shorted another 2 more contracts at 2223.. I held it all the way till the end and exited at 2217.5 with profits of $410.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

There's no trade today... market gapped up and made a desperate attempt to go higher, but price just tumbled down and closed the gap... Price came down fast and furious, there wasn't a chance for me to play the gap closure as there was very little room left. The risk / reward did not look very nice...

After that, price just moved in a tight ranging manner with Short-term Sthochastics close to the zero line.

-------------

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Today's market gapped up but immediately formed a shooting star... This is simply a bad omen that price is going to fall... Stochastics also started to fall and I shorted 1 contract at 2213 and another 2 more contracts at 2204 ....

The logical place to get out of the trade? Yesterday's close will form a natural support line... notice how price bounced off the resistance and a white candle appeared? Well, I just exited at 2195 with profits of $720.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's it going? Today's trade is simple... Price opened and kept on dropping ... all the way to the moving averages.. and rebounded sharply... Stochastics rebounded and I longed 1 contract at 2185 and another 2 more contracts at 2196...

Price started to slow when it reached the opening price and a red candlestick appeared.. stochastics also fell... I exited at 2203 with profits of $800.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq Emini 100

Hi,

Market gapped down and started to plunge down... I missed this trade.. on hindsight I should have shorted when it broke the moving averages... But that's easy to say on hindsight...

Today's trade is based on strong technical signals.. Do you see a huge double-bottom? There is strong support at 2154 and a hammer candle stick appeared.. Stochastics and short-term MACD went up at the same time...

I longed 1 contract at 2165 and another 2 more contracts at 2170... Price broke all the way through the moving averages... I exited at 2195 only when stochastics started to turn down... profits of $1200

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market gapped up by aroung 10 points today and made several attempt to close the gap, but we can see that upward momentum is strong and price did not really close the gap..

I waited for my chance... I had to wait till almost 14:00 when price broke off the resistance formed by the earlier sessions and I longed 1 contract at 2204.. note that stochastics and Short-term MACD are not really displaying favourable patterns... Nonetheless, I have to put price action first and this was a signal I had to act on...

The trade went well, but price seemed to hit resistance at 2215 and stochastics started to turn down sharply with a red candlestick. If you notice hard enough, there is a doji candlestick which appears before the big drop. I exited at 2210 with profits of $120.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market gapped down by around 5 points today... Within the first 5 minutes, there was immediate signs that price tried to close the gap.. The technicals were too compelling for me to go long.

1 There was a hammer candlestick suggesting downward support.
2 Stochastics cut very beautifully from the oversold region upwards
3 Short-term MACD did the same by cutting the signal line.
4 Mid-term MACD served to confirm the trade by cutting the signal line too in the middle of the trade

I longed 1 contract at 2143 and another 2 more contracts at 2152.. I held my position all the way till price hit the moving averages... then a doji red candlestick appeared and it signaled time to get out.. Stochastics also started to turn down... I exited at 2165 with profits of $960.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Today's trade you really have to prepare for it yesterday... Since yesterday's close, Mid-term MACD was already cutting the signal line and when market opened today, price immediately cut the moving averages with a huge red candle...

I waited for further signals before going short... then when price cut through my last moving average, I knew the time is right to go short... I shorted 1 contract at 2188 and another 2 more contracts at 2180... Held it all the way until stochastics started to cut the oversold line and I exited at 2167 with profits of $940.

Fundamentals:
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped more than 360 points Friday -- the 20th anniversary of the Black Monday crash -- as lackluster corporate earnings, renewed credit concerns and rising oil prices spooked investors

Posted by Michael Taylor at 11:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq Emini 100

Hi,

Today market gapped down... it subsequently closed the gap and moved quite alot to the upside... But, there was no signal for me to trade... If you noticed, there is a plausible trading signal, when stochastics moved up, but Short-term MACD was very near the zero-line... cautioning me not to go long...

Subsequently, when price closed the gap, I should have gone long according to the strong price momentum, despite having no signals from either stochastics or short-term MACD, however, the limited upside made me think twice about going long and I stayed on the sidelines..

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's it going? The market today presented good opportunities for trading... Price gapped up about 20 points.. Normally, I would deem this as a runaway gap and there's little chance of the gap closing.. BUT, price movement till 12:00 suggested oitherwise... price simply couldn't hit above 2200...

Stochastics already turned down from the overbought region and price went down with it... I shorted 1 contract at 2192 and another 2 more contracts at 2182 when it broke the moving averages.. I am confident of the short as price broke the support level of 2190 with decisive price action...

The rest is just letting the trade work itself out.. When price hit 2170, which was a previous support level... stochastics started to turn up, Short-term MACD followed suit... and we have a situation where it's wiser to take profits than hope for the best that price will drop even further.. I closed out at 2171 with profits of $860.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi there is no trade today, market is in dilemma and direction is uncertain... The major factor that prevents me from entering the market is that moving averages are flat .... Price gapped down today and shortly after, it tried to close the gap... Sthocastics and Short-term MACD went up as well, but I wasn't comfortable going long due to 2 major reasons.

1    there is limited upside, by the time I could go long, price was already at 2170 and yesterday's close was at 2180. Upside is only about 10 points

2   Moving averages are downward sloping and flat, suggesting that there is a lack of momentum and price simply did not exhibit enough strength to convince me that it will close the gap...

Well, it turned out that price did finally managed to close the gap and even go beyond that... I missed the trade... But I am glad I did as I still viewed this as a highly uncertain trade..

Price action thereafter is slow, hovering around the moving averages... No trade today.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's it going? I did not trade today. You might have discovered some trading opportunites especially at the turn of the stochastics ( see green cricles in figure)... But my caveat is that moving averages are flat and the Short-term MACD is uncomfortably close to the zero-line. I did not want to risk it. Risk / reward did not seem good enough for me to consider going long... I stayed on the sidelines... I want to encourage traders, especially novice traders to have the courage to stay on the sidelines when you must. There is no rule that states that you must trade everyday.

Fundamentals:
U.S. retail sales rose solidly in September while inflation pressures were largely muted, according to data on Friday that eased recession fears and suggested further interest rates cuts may not be needed. The show of consumer spending power in the face of a slumping housing market and tighter credit conditions gave a lift to stocks prices and to the value of the dollar. Bond prices fell as traders saw the data reducing chances that the Federal Reserve, which lowered borrowing costs in September, would do so again at a meeting at end of the month.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 8:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq Emini 100

Hi,

How's it going? Price finally broke the barrier after going up for so many days.. I did not manage to catch the first leg of the down trend. It can as a surprise to me, I was waiting for a rebound from the moving averages, but it did not happen. Instead, it broke the moving averages to go down and down...

So what next? I had to wait for the next leg of correction before I decide to go short... My chance came as there was a slight rebound that brought price all the way back to near to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands.. I shorted 1 contract at 2175 and another 2 more contracts at 2166.. This was nicely accompanied by stochastics and Short-term MACD cutting their signal lines.. I exited only at 2150 when stochastics and short-term MACD turned up with a white candle stick... Profits = $1140.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 8:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

DId you trade the morning sessions today? I stayed out of the market until the FED released their minutes.. There were a confluence of factors when the minutes were released that led me to go long... Firstly, price was very near the moving averages and it bounced up. Secondly, immediate reaction to the minutes was good... Thirdly, Stochastics was forming a double bottom and fourthly, Short-term MACD cut its signal line up..

I longed 1 contract at 2185 and when price dropped to 2182, I longed another contract.. I held my position all the way till 2192 when I exited with a profit of $540. Notice that Stochastics and short-term MACD turned downwards when i exited?

Fundamentals:
Wall Street advanced sharply Tuesday as investors interpreted minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting as indicating the central bank is ready to keep cutting interest rates to boost the economy. The Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500 index reached new record highs.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's Sept. 18 meeting, when Fed governors voted unanimously for a half-point cut, also showed that officials were concerned that the weakness in the dollar could lead to higher inflation. But the Fed -- signaling it is more willing to intervene -- also said the economic outlook was uncertain because of the summer's credit crisis, and that there were still risks to growth that justified lower rates.
The major indexes were little changed just before the minutes came out, then rose sharply. Investors were hoping that the Fed would lean toward future rate cuts; central bankers will meet again Oct. 30-31.
"This adds fuel to the fire that the Fed is going to try and reinvigorate the economy with further cuts, and that's what they are committed to," said Richard E. Cripps, chief market strategist for Stifel Nicolaus. "The likelihood of having a second cut either this month or at the December meeting seems greater than before the minutes."

Posted by Michael Taylor at 7:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market gapped down today only to recover quickly and went down again... Is there a trend? I can't tell from such irregular price movements. But one thing's for sure--> the daily charts are still on the up trend... It would be unwise to short..

There are several technical signals that came into play for today's trade.

1 There's the double bottom that formed in the price pattern as it hits the bottom of the Bollinger Band

2 Stochastics formed a similar double bottom patttern

3 As we confirm the double bottom, stochastics cut the signal line

4 Short-term MACD cut the signal line as well.
-----

Although upside is limited by the resistance formed by high in the morning session, risk/reward is reasonable and I entered 1 contract at 2168... price proceeded to cut the moving averages which affirmed my conviction... I waited all the way till it hit 2174 which is a resistance and I started to be cautious... I exited at 2173.5 with profits of $110.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 8:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq Emini 100

Hi,

Market gapped up due to better than expected Nonfarm payroll numbers. Market was undecided for the morning session... I only entered the market when price broke the high of the morning session at 11:00am. I entered 1 contract at 2148 and another 2 more contracts at 2160.... One caution is stochastics is not applicable in such environment.. notice how the moving averages diverges? this is a strong trend environment... Notice how there is negative divergence in the Short-term MACD? This is irrelevant as the price action is strong.. I exited only at the end at 2170.. with profits of $840.

Fundamentals:
Employment rose in September, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 4.7 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 110,000 following increases of 93,000 in July and 89,000 in August (as revised). In September, health care, food services, and professional and technical services continued to add jobs, while employment trended down in manufacturing and construction. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents, or 0.4 percent. Unemployment (Household Survey Data) The number of unemployed persons (7.2 million) and the unemployment rate (4.7 percent) were essentially unchanged in September.

A year earlier, the number of unemployed persons was 6.9 million and the jobless rate was 4.6 percent. Over the month, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.2 percent), adult women (4.0 percent), teenagers (16.0 percent), whites (4.2 percent), blacks (8.1 percent), and Hispanics (5.7 percent) showed little or no change. The unemployment rate for Asians was 3.2 percent, not seasonally adjusted. Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data) Both total employment (146.3 million) and the civilian labor force (153.5 million) rose in September.

Nearly half of the over-the-month increase in the labor force occurred among teenagers; this offset a labor force decline among that group in August. The employment-population ratio (62.9 percent) and the labor force participation rate (66.0 percent) were little changed over the month. Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data) Nearly 1.3 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally at- tached to the labor force in September, about the same as a year earlier. These individuals wanted and were available to work and had looked for a job sometime during the prior 12 months.

They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 276,000 discouraged workers in September, little different from a year earlier. Discouraged workers were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs were available for them. The nearly 1.0 million remaining persons marginally attached to the labor force in September had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance and family responsibilities.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq Emini

Hi,

How's it going? Market is in a consolidation phase...It's not really moving much.. Today's trade is based pretty much on candlestick pattern... At 10:00, a hammer started to form with stochastics turning up...

Furthermore, price was near the low of yesterday which is a support line.. I entered 1 contract at 2115 and another 2 more contracts at 2117.5 when prices consolidated... I exited only when price hit the moving averages and showed no sign of breaking through... notice that stochastics and Short-term MACD turned down after I exited? profits = $560.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 8:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's it going? We have more than recovered from the August debacle... and now prices are at a high again... price action today is undecided and sluggish... movement is zig-zagged at best and I decided that if there is no significant signal, I won't trade.

Today's trade is a classic, price dropped down all the way to my moving averages and bounce up together with a up turn in stochastics...I had to go long. the risk/reward is good... I won't lose too much even if I were wrong...

I longed 1 contract at 2128 but got out and 2131 when stochastics started to turn down. profits of $60.. Price action is too sluggish for me to continue...

Posted by Michael Taylor at 8:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Market was undecided for the morning and I refrained from taking a position... However if you observed, stochastic and MACD is slowing edging up.... I entered only when price broke the high established by the morning sessions in a decisive white candlestick.. I longed 1 contract at 2125 and anotther 2 more contracts at 2128.. afterthat, it was just smooth sailing... price action was strong and continued above the green moving averages, although stochastics and MACD did cut the signal lines, DON'T PANIC and start to think about exiting.. price action is more important... do what the market is telling you to do... I became more cautious when price broke down the moving averages....all the way to my blue moving average... I exited at 2134 with profits of $420..

Another signal of weakening trend is the negative divergence of the short-term MACD... Stochastics also started to turn down dramatically... This cautioned me to plan an exit soon.

Fundamentals:
Manufacturing activity continues expanding in the U.S. in September, although at a slower pace than in August, as the latest ISM PMI manufacturing report shows.The ISM manufacturing index of September has fallen to 52.0 from 52.9 in August; the employment index has edged up to 51.7 from 51.3 in August, while the prices index has fallen to 59.0 from 63.0 in August. New orders have decreased to 53.4 from 55.3, and production has declined to 54.6 from 56.1 in August.The only component below the 50 level has been the inventories index, which decreased to 41.6 from 45.4 in August.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 8:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)