Day Trade Emini S&P 500 NASDAQ 100

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Today's trade is not the usual trade that I usually do.. One of the greatest advantage we have as day traders is to stay nimble and react to market situations..

Market gapped down today... I thought that it was going to go down again.. You never know when there is so much talk of recession in the news and so much pessimism among the investors... I took a wait and see atitude to how the market would develop today... Price did not go down below the opening price.... it was wriggling up to close the gap... But was this enough to go long? NO! There were no good signals and price action was simiply too sluggish for my liking...

BUt at 11:25 price closed the gap with one big candlestick... and if sentiments were weak, it would have bounced right back... But NO! It didn't bounce back... on the contrary... price continued another surge... Mid-term MACD also cut the signal line nicely and Short-term MACD cut the zero line... I longed 1 contract at 1814 ...

Price action was promising after that, but it fell.... That didn't make me panic because I was still in the black... I decided to let it run... and at 1819 I entered 2 more contracts as stochastics bounced off the oversold line... After that, price made small steps increases upwards and I would say the trade was smooth sailing... I exited at 1844 when price felll in one big red candle with Stochastics, MACD all crashing down... profits of $1600.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Fed assured the markets that it was going to take more action to soothe the turmoil... It cut rates by 50 basis as expected.. and market jumped up on that announcement...

So what did I do? I went long 1 contract almost immediately after the announcement at 1815 and another 2 more contracts at 1827 when price pulled back.. I held my position all the way till price started to topple and Stochastics cut down, Short-term MACD also cut the signal line and Mid-Term MACD also appeared to be turning down... I exited at 1834 with profits of $660.

Fundamentals:
The Federal Reserve delivered powerful new relief to people and businesses squeezed by the ailing economy Wednesday, cutting interest rates ever deeper in an effort to avert or at least soften the blow of a recession.
The bold, half-point reduction approved by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and all but one of his colleagues came as President Bush and Congress raced to enact a separate rescue package -- including tax rebates for individuals and tax breaks for companies -- to help energize an economy in danger of stalling.
Heartened by the Fed's newfound aggressiveness, Wall Street rallied but then pulled back, still wary. The Dow Jones industrials jumped more than 200 points after the announcement but ended up down 37.47.
Commercial banks followed the Fed action by lowering their prime lending rate by the same half percentage point -- to 6 percent, the lowest in nearly three years. That prime rate applies to certain credit cards, home equity lines of credit and other loans.
Hours before the Fed's action, the government reported that the nation's economic growth had stumbled to a virtual halt. The economy grew at just a 0.6 percent pace from October through December, and for all of 2007 it logged its weakest performance in five years.
The collapse of the housing market, sour mortgage investments and much harder-to-get credit are weighing on people and businesses alike. Foreclosures have hit record highs, and banks have racked up multibillion-dollar losses. The fallout has shaken Wall Street, catapulted the economy to Topic A among worried families and galvanized political figures, including those vying to be the next president.
"The economy is hanging by a thread," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.
While Wednesday's interest rate cut was welcome, the Fed's blunt new assessment of the economy was sobering for everyone from business owners to people worried about debts to anyone without a job -- or fearful of losing one.
"Credit has tightened further for some businesses and households," the Fed said. "Moreover, recent information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets."
In its 9-1 decision, the Federal Reserve dropped its key rate to 3 percent at the end of a two-day meeting. Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas was the sole dissenter. He preferred no change.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Today's trade is easy...price formed a double bottom pattern and there was positive divergence with the stochastics and Short-term MACD...

Everyone's waiting to see if the FED will cut rate another 50 bps... But that's not really my concern... The double bottom and positive divergence is enough for me to go long...

I longed 1 contract at 1788 and another 2 more contracts at 1793... I only exited when price hit the moving averages and bounced back abit... I exited at $1803 with profits of $700.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,
The market's ranging now... still digesting the FEB cut... But if you are going to trade, I would advise not to go short... Never fight the FEB... especially in the short term..

You might think that there is a good trade from the upturn in Stochastics and price bouncing off the moving averages... But look carefully again... Short-term MACD is not really moving up.. and it's sticking around zero line... I was not prepared to take the risk... Not worth it.. No Trade today.

Fundamentals:
Wall Street scored its second straight big advance Thursday after economic figures suggested the job market is holding up and as lawmakers agreed on measures that could ease concerns about consumer spending. The Dow Jones industrials rose more than 100 points, bringing its two-day gain to more than 400.

While stocks fluctuated throughout the session, trading was decidedly more calm than on Wednesday, when Wall Street executed a stunning turnaround that transformed a sharp sell-off into big gains for stocks. Thursday's rise was notable, however, as investors will often move in a day after a rally or plunge to take profits or scoop up bargains. That the buying largely continued was a positive sign, observers said.

Investors were clearly interested in buying, but despite the size of the advance, there didn't appear to be much conviction to it -- the market is still searching for clues about the economy in hopes of determining whether it will soon pick up or will continue to slow and tip into recession.

In addition, the market wobbled during the session after Fitch Ratings lowered its rating on bond insurer Security Capital Assurance Ltd. Bond insurers have been hurt in the fallout from the mortgage and credit crises, and news of their problems has shaken the market.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

FEB announced an emergency rate cut of 75bps? That is a huge cut! imagine most of the time they adjust by 25 bps... now all of a sudden its 3 times more..

Market gapped down nonetheless and in fact it went down even more and for a moment we all thought that the market was going to crash again... but at around 13:00, my Mid-term MACD started to cut the signal line and stochastics was also cutting the oversold line...

I longed 1 contract at 1711 and another 2 more contracts at 1720... I held it all the way till Short-term MACD cut the signal line down again...and I exited at 1738... with profits of $1260...

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How is it going? Yesterday was Martin Luther King's day and there was no trading,,, market dropped by almost 100 points... It further gapped down when it opened today... but it was pretty obvious that market was oversold and stochastic was up... Short-term MACD was also pointing up and cutting the signal line...

I longed 1 contract at 1757 and another 2 more contracts at 1777... I held all the way until stochastics cut the overbought line again Short-term MACD also turned down... I exited at 1800 which is also a resistance line with $1780 profits.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market gapped down slightly, covered the gap and immediately met resistance at the moving averages, bouncing down with a sharp turn of stochastics... I shorted 1 contract at 1880 and another 2 more contracts at 1874... Price was choppy but went down as expected... I only exited when stochastics cut up the oversold region. I exited at 1866 with $600 profits.

Fundamentas:
Credit concerns also dogged Wall Street after rating agency Moody's Investors Service placed bond insurer Ambac Assurance Corp. on review for a possible downgrade. That possibility alarmed Wall Street because it would place all bonds insured by Ambac on review as well. Ratings agencies are concerned that bond insurers would be unable to absorb a spike in claims.

Investors fears of a slowing economy again dominated trading.

"The Philadelphia Fed just announced dreadful numbers," said John O'Donoghue, co-head of equities at Cowen & Co. He said if you look back at Philadelphia Fed data for similar numbers, it takes you back to the 2001 to 2002 recession.

"It's not rocket science - the economy is slowing dramatically, and it's being reflected in economic reports."

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market's still volatile and I am usually very cautious in such markets... Today's trade a little different from my usual trade. I traded only one contract and held it for a much longer time... I was prepared to exit if I sustained a slight loss....

Market gapped down today and it plunged further.. didn't seem too assuring that an trend reversal to uptrend is coming... I went long 1 contract at 1868 when stochastics formed a double bottom and cut up the oversold region... My stop loss was immediately below that at 1955... I wasn't prepared to lose too much...

Price met resistance when it hit the opening price... it bounced back again... I was tempted to close the trade... but I didn't I expected it to close the gap... and I already had a limit order at 1908... Also, I did not pyramid my position by entering a second trade...and I was not losing money.. I decided to let price fluctuate and run...

After some consolidation, price shot up again... and it hit my limit order at 1908 .. I was exited with $800 profits.

Notice how price went down again after I exited? Morale of the story? Stick to your price target and don't be overly greedy.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

The market is ranging narrowly and trending down at the same time. There was an article I wrote before that exhibit similar behavior. As you probably guessed, I stayed out of the market today...

Would you go long from the stochastics cutting up? ( Look at circle) . When you know that the general trend is down, do you go long? The answer is NO! You don't have to trade if you are unsure. Just stay out of it.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market is still volatile and I can't really tell where it is going... I tend to be cautious in such markets... Today, I only entered 1 contract instead of the usually 3 contracts...

I didn't really like the price action but it bounced off an almost flat moving average with stochastics moving up.. this means a good risk/reward for me.. I longed 1 contract at 1945... and exited when price hit the morning high at 1959 with profits of $280.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,
Market gapped down slightly and never fully recovered... it just trended slowly downwards,, but in a tight range.. look at the trend lines I have drawn and see for yourself how price action is behaving... It's stuck in a narrow Bollinger Band of width 10 points..

This is not my favourite market and I decided not to trade it... The risk/reward is not appealing at all...

Is there a signal at the end? Yes, it was a valid signal... but I just wouldn't go long in a downtrend like this... Like I said, the risk/reward is not worth it... NO TRADE TODAY.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,
How's it going? market is lacking in direction and it is ranging today... It gapped down a little but quickly covered it up.. The moving averages are flat... There might be possilbe trading signals on highsight ( Look at the areas I circled) but I did not enter.

Firstly, stochastics did not really cross up from the oversold region... It sort of just bounced off the the oversold line at 20....

Secondly, the biggest reason is I don't like the haphazard price action with the flat moving averages.. Flat MA usually mean no trend... You don't have to force yourself to trade when the odds are not in your favor.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market volatilite makes it more difficult to get a sensing of direction... Normally, after a few red candle days you would expect today to go up... but... it went further down today... Be extra cautious in this market and play according to the signals... Don't let your pre-judgement of what the market should be like affect the way you trade.

Today's trade is based on resistance lines and double top formations... Basically, I watched the morning session closely and discovered that the moving averages presented pretty strong resistance... My tendency was to go short.... I was just waiting for an appropiate signal...

Finally at 14:30, Price hit the high formed by the morning session and immediately went down, forming a double top... Stochastics and MACD also cut the signal lines and went down with it.... I figured that if I shorted here, there would be good risk/reward since my stop loss is just going to be on top of the resistance line... pretty tight...

I shorted 1 contract at 1980 and another 2 more contracts at 1967.. I held my position all the way till stochastics started to turn up and a white candle appeared... I exited at 1947... with profits of $1460.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market is very volatlie these few days. I recommend that if you don't see a signal, stay out of the market. Market started today ranging and then started to plunge down... DId I go short? NO! was there a signal ? NO! So I waited till 10:40 when a white candle finally appeared and stochastics cut up the oversold line.. I longed 1 contract at 1954 and another 2 more contracts at 1977 (this 2nd entry turned out to be a loss) when there was another price surge above a pullback region...

Price was exhibiting considerable resistance from the moving averages and I knew that I shouldn't have gone long the 2 more contracts... Stochastics started to turn... and I prepared to exit... I exited at 1975 with profits of $320.. but making a loss of $80 on the 2nd leg of the trade... I had no choice but to exit because stochastics was turning down and in fact cut the overbought line...

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

The market's whipsawing up and down and I would suggest that if you are unsure of market direction, just stay out of the market... Today's trade is based on resistance and support lines and the surge in price during the last few minutes of trading...

Notice that when price hit the moving averages, it started to move down again? Downward pressure is great.... I had to wait till 15:40 to find a decent trade... price bounced off the support lines.. which is great, since my stop loss would just be below the support line giving me great risk/reward ratio...Also, stochastics went up nicely...

I longed 1 contract at 2060 and another 2 more contracts at 2068 when price broke the resistance line formed in the earlier sessions...I held my position till the closing bell and exited at 2077 with profits of $700.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How is it going? Market had a bad start, price was heavy on the upside and it just went down and down... today's trade is more based on price action than anything else.... I did not enter the market immediately... at 10:25.. there was a slight rebound and if price stage a comeback, there was still a chance of an uptrend... but... price simply broke it... this is my first signal... but I did not enter since I needed more conviction .. All my indicators where "underwater" in the oversold region...

Then at 11:15, when price cut through 2090 which is a support line... I shorted 1 contract at 2085... I am cautious on this trade as all my other indicators were already "underwater"... its not unusual for price to turn up anytime soon....
I only shorted another 2 more contracts at 2075 and exited at 2066 when stochastics cut up from the oversold region.. notice that shortly after, Short-term MACD also cut its signal line...Profits = $740.

Fundamentals:
Crude Futures Hit Record $100 a Barrel on Supply Concerns After Violence Breaks Out in Nigeria
Crude oil prices briefly soared to $100 a barrel Wednesday for the first time, reaching that milestone amid an unshakeable view that global demand for oil and petroleum products will outstrip supplies.
Surging economies in China and India fed by oil and gasoline have sent prices soaring over the past year, while tensions in oil producing nations like Nigeria and Iran have increasingly made investors nervous and invited speculators to drive prices even higher.
Violence in Nigeria helped give crude the final push to $100. Bands of armed men invaded Port Harcourt, the center of Nigeria's oil industry Tuesday, attacking two police stations and raiding the lobby of a major hotel. Word that several Mexican oil export ports were closed due to rough weather added to the gains, as did a report that OPEC may not be able to meet its share of global oil demand by 2024.
Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose $4.02 to $100 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, according to Brenda Guzman, a Nymex spokeswoman, before slipping back to settle at a record close of $99.62, up $3.64.
Oil prices are within the range of inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980. Depending on how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel then would be worth $96 to $103 or more today.
The White House on Wednesday said it would not release oil from the nation's strategic reserves to drive prices lower.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 9:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)