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October 30, 2008

No trade today.. market in dilemma..

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market gapped up today only to return back the gains by mid day.. Seriously... I couldn't tell where the market was going..

I did not like the candlestick patterns...short bodies and irregular patterns...If you look at stochastics alone, it gave a buy signal... and you might have won some money if you go long... But is this the right way to trade? Taking excessive risks for just a little profit?? No trade today...

October 28, 2008

High volatility, Fed cuts ? $1940 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Moving averages were flat all through the morning session... It did not seem like a good day to trade, so I decided to wait and see what happens..

Towards 13:30, price action started to show some life.... Stochastics bounced from the oversold line and short-term MACD bounced from the zero line.. Also, price broke through one of the resistance lines from the morning session...

I longed 1 contract at 1212 and another contract at 1228 when it pulled back abit... I exited at 1255 when price action displayed some sluggishness.. price has gone up too fast in too short a period of time and I decided not to get too greedy... profits of $1940...

However, it turns out that price went by quite a bit even after I exited... Like I said before, it is not possible to buy at the trough and sell at the peak... I made $1940 and I am satisfied, what is important is that I controlled my greed...

October 23, 2008

Market undecisive mode - are we really seeing a bottom yet?

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

There seem to be strong support at the 1200 level and price movements around this region is muted.. I am not seeing a healthy moving average slope for me to go long...

Stochastics and short-term MACD exhibit dirty movements and price action is charaterized by short bodies ...

This is not my ideal market... NO TRADE TODAY.

October 22, 2008

Earnings season - market still undecisive ..

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

If you think that market is uninteresting lately.. you are right.. why? because moving averages are flat and candlestick bodies are short.. This are the reasons why you should stay out.. If you are trading for the thrill, you might win money for a while... but I guarantee that you are going to lose in the long run... Have patience and take a long term view on your profitability... there is no need to trade when you dont have to ..

October 21, 2008

Moving averages still flat, Better not to enter market.

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market is till in turmoil today.. as it whips up and down.. If you observed, you might think that the downturn of stochastics and short-term MACD is a good signal.. but in the overall assessment of technical indicators.. I decided not to go short..

Candlesticks movements are dirty... moving averages are flat... this are the main reasons why I did not enter the market.

October 20, 2008

No trade today. Moving averages flat, short-term MACD flat.

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market is pretty quiet today... It is a typical day you wouldn't want to trade and the reason is simple..

1 Moving averages are flat
2 bollingers are not expanding.. the bollinger bands are flat as well..
3 candlesticks have long shadows.
4 if you look at stochastics alone, you might have a trading signal...
5 short-term MACD cuts up the signal together with stochastics.. Do we have a good signal to go long here?

But if you combine this with all that you know about technical analysis, you will reach the conclusion that it is not worth to go long at all..

October 16, 2008

Surprising turnaround by the market. Long -> $1000 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

The market started going down from the opening bell... it smelled like another melt down... But I was not too keen to enter the market until a clearer direction emerge..

I decided to test the market with 1 contract at 1203 when stochastics formed a double bottom and cut the oversold line... I longed 1 contract and held my position until price hit the moving averages and stochastics started to cut down the overbought line..

I exited at 1253 with $1000 profits.

October 15, 2008

Market plunges again! -> $1340 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market gapped down a little at the opening bell. Look at the moving averages.. all of them are slanting down.. I did not enter the market immediately.. I was waiting for a chance to short the market.. I shorted only when stochastics cut down the signal line and rebounded from my yellow moving averages.. I shorted 1 contract at 1300 and only exited towards the close of the market at 1233 with profits of $1340.

October 14, 2008

Market still uncertain again --> Short -> $1040 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market plungged down immediately during the opening bell. We can tell that market is still digesting the bailout plan by the government. Uncertainty rules the market, it is pretty obvious that the uptrend from yesterday will not continue today..

I shorted 1 contract at 1450 as stochastics and short-term MACD cut down the signal line.. I only exited when price found support at my moving averages and stochastics started to turn up to cut the oversold line for a second time.. Notice how short-term MACD cut the signal line after I exited. profits of $1040 .

October 13, 2008

Market rebounds on government bailout ! $1400 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How often do you see the market gapping up these days? Today market gapped up by more than 30 points. Obviously market is in favor of the government's bailout plans. Do you go short? NO! This is obvioulsy a chance to go long..

I was not too sure whether the upward trend would continue.. especially in these volatile times. I waited till there was a pullback to my yellow moving averages, short-term MACD and stochastics cut their signal lines...

I longed 1 contract at 1385 and held my position all the way till the end.. I exited at 1455 with profits of $1400.

October 10, 2008

Market in state of confusion -> Stay out!

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How is it going?
The market has been particularly difficult lately and I couldn't really find good trading opportunities.. I am not forcing myself to trade. As day traders, we are not forced to take up unnecessary positions like institution traders...

The candles sticks today have the typical short bodies and long shadow patterns.. This by itself is a warning signal of a ranging market... furthermore, short-term MACD is close to the zero-line... this is not a good signal either..

Stay out!

October 8, 2008

Coordinated rate cuts? - Market in frefall ??

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

So you have heard of the coordinated rate cuts? Is it working? Apparently not.. I decided to stay out of the market.. I did not like the long shadows on the candlesticks. Next, I don't like the fact that there is no real slope in the moving averages.. Also, Short-term MACD is close to zero line... No trade today.

October 7, 2008

No Trade Today! Market still Crashing!!

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market is still crashing... We have no idea when this is going to end... So we should short? Not really.. take a look at the charts... I couldn't really tell whether market is going up or down during trading hours...it went up just to go down again in a zig zag manner.. this is very BAD! stochastics osciallates up and down... do you think you can trade in such an environment? Yes, but only if you take big risks... I am not willing to do that...

October 6, 2008

Market crashing again, hit support line -> Stochastics up -> $920 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Do you think the bail out package worked? Market doesn't seem to think so for the time being.. Price gapped down and started the downward trend... It formed a bottom at 1360... this gave me the signal that there might be strong support at 1360...

I did not enter the market immediately.. I waited for price to rebound... I found a chance to go long at 1363 when stochastics cut the signal line.. I was not very sure of the trade and 1 contract was all I was prepared to risk..

The trade turned out well and I exited my position at 1409 with profits of $920.

October 2, 2008

Short the Market ! Initial cliams rose to 497k -> Short --> $940 profits

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

The market gapped down slightly... We are still unsure of the bailout package... The Labor Department reported that the number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose to 497,000 last week, reaching a 7-year high....

All the news surroundign the market is negative.. It is gripped in fear and panic...

Stochastics, short-term MACD cut the signal line, I shorted 1 contract at 1555. and I put my stop loss at 1560... market is volatile recently and I am not prepared to lose too much on my position...

It turned out that price stayed below my yellow moving average throughout the day... I only covered my position at the end of the day at 1508 with $940 profits...

You could have made more if you shorted more contracts.. But I wasn't too sure of market direction because of recently volatility..