Day Trade Emini S&P 500 NASDAQ 100

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Market gapped down today but immediately covered the gap... it further went on to recover some of yesterday's losses...and even went over all my moving averages.. I missed this long trade... instead, I was looking for a shorting opportunity... It came when stochastics and Short-term MACD started to cut their signal lines which was accompanied by a red candlestick... I shorted 1 contract at 1772 and another 2 more contracts at 1752 when price broke the resistance set up by the morning sessions... I only exited at 1740 when stochastics started to cut back up from the oversold region with $1520 profits.

Fundamentals:
Industry data released Thursday show pending U.S. home sales fell 1.5 percent in December to the second-lowest reading on record, another indication that the housing market is worsening.
The National Association of Realtors said its seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes fell to a reading of 85.9 from a downwardly revised November index of 87.2. The reading was just short of the record low of 85.5 it hit in August, at the peak of the worldwide credit squeeze.
Analysts had predicted the index would rise to a reading of 88, according to the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR.
Typically there is a one to two-month lag between when a buyer signs a home sales contract and the closing of the deal. Sales completed last month and into this month should be reflected in the December reading.
An index reading of 100 is equal to the average level of sales activity in 2001, when the index started.
The Realtors group also lowered its forecast for U.S. existing home sales this year. It now projects sales will fall to 5.4 million, down from 5.7 million in 2007.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Market made a desperate attempt to recoup yesterday's losses but it couldnt break through the moving averages..After forming an ascending wedge, it broke down. This was accompanied by a down turn in Stochastics and Short-term MACD cutting its signal line.. I shorted 1 contract at 1794 ... You can see that price trended downwards and I was safely holding onto profits already..

There was a slight hiccup in the stochastics as it cut up the oversold line... I did not exit and I was still having profits and wanted to see what happen next, I did not expect it to go up and cut my moving averages... As expected, price accelerated the down trend and cut the support at yesterday's closing price... I shorted another 2 more contracts at 1778... and finally only exited at 1762 when stochastics cut up and Short-term MACD cut the signal line. Profits of $1280.

Fundamentals:
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that productivity, the amount of output per hour of work, increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the October-December quarter, down from a 6 percent performance in the July-September period. The slowdown reflected the fact that overall economic activity skidded to a near standstill in the final three months of the year, with the gross domestic product rising at a barely perceptible rate of 0.6 percent.
Labor costs rose by 2.1 percent in the final three months of the year, after having fallen by 1.9 percent in the third quarter and 1.1 percent in the second quarter.
The increase in productivity in the fourth quarter was nearly double what economists had been expecting, while the rise in labor costs was slightly lower than expected. However, analysts cautioned that much of the strength in productivity reflected a sharp drop in the number of hours being worked by the self-employed, while the huge jump in the third quarter reflected the big increase in economic output in that period.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

As always, the market is usually quiet before the FED announcement of rate policy... I never trade befoere the actual announcement itself.... You can see for yourself, how the market is range-bounded in anticipation of the FED's announcement.

14:15, the magical moment! FED announced a cut of 25 basis instead of the 50 basis expected and market plunged like hell... I could not short in time and only managed to get in at 2134.. I further shorted another contract at 2120.. and held my position all the way till the end when I exited at 2088 for $2200 profits.. Such opportunities don't come eveyday and all traders should capitalize to make a killing out of it..

Fundamentals:

NEW YORK (AP) - Wall Street plunged Tuesday after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter point, disappointing investors who hoped the central bank would move more aggressively to help the economy overcome the credit and mortgage crisis. The Dow Jones industrial average skidded more than 290 points.

Investors had been expecting policymakers would lower rates for a third straight time, though there was debate over the size of the cut. Most economists anticipated a quarter-point reduction in the benchmark federal funds rate to 4.25 percent, but some investors were hoping for a half-point cut from the Fed's final meeting this year and their disappointment took the market sharply lower.

Wall Street had barreled higher the past two weeks, propelling the Dow up 640 points partly on rising optimism that the Fed would do all it could to prevent the economy from slipping into recession. While the Fed indicated Tuesday it was doing exactly that, the market's expectations had run well ahead of the central bank's view of the economy and what it needed.

The Fed also lowered its discount rate, the interest it charges banks for loans, by a quarter point to 4.75 percent, making it easier for banks to obtain the cash they need for year-end obligations. Fed officials signaled that further cuts are possible if a severe downturn in housing and a crisis in mortgage lending worsen, but that was not enough to assuage the market.

The central bank did note that the economy has suffered, and that likely added to Wall Street's distress. The statement accompanying the Fed's decision said "information suggests that economic growth is slowing," and deleted language from prior statements stating that risks to the economy are balanced. But the Fed stood firm on a quarter-point cut for now, saying it believed the steps it has taken "should help promote moderate growth over time."

"Time will tell if this restores enough confidence in the system. They're saying that this with the other cuts that we have done should promote growth over time. It's a telegraph that we think this is a sufficient move to alleviate the stresses on the market," said Bill Knapp, economist and chief investment strategist for MainStay Investments, a division of New York Life Investment Management.

The Dow fell 294.26, or 2.14 percent, to 13,432.77 after dropping as much as 313.29.

Broader indexes also fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 38.31, or 2.53 percent, to 1,477.65, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 66.60, or 2.45 percent, to 2,652.35.

Declining issues outpaced advancers by more than 5 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 3.97 billion shares compared with 2.81 billion shares traded Monday.

Bond prices rose sharply. The 10-year Treasury note's yield, which moves opposite the price, fell to 3.97 percent from 4.16 percent late Monday. Gold prices fell while the dollar was mixed against other major currencies.

Good Trading to all of you!
Michael Taylor


DAY TRADE EMINI S&P 500 Futures

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

If you have been following my blog, I am sure you would have stayed out the market before the FED announced the cut at 14:15.. market was ranging and price simply wasn't moving anywhere...

I want you to take note of the price movement just before the FED made the announcement. The green dotted vertical line is drawn at 14:00... As soon as FED announced the cut, price fell, price was already very near to the moving averages and such a fall had a high chance of cutting the moving averages. I shorted 1 contract at 2227 and another 2 more at 2222... I thought that market was reacting badly to the FED decisions... However, price began to spike up alll of a sudden and I knew that a rebound was going to take place, I closed off my position and entered long 1 contract.

Now, this first trade had already given me $400 profits. Notice that instead of buying 3 contracts to close off my short position, I bought 4 contracts straight away, thus leaving myself net 1 contract long. My decision proved to be correct and I longed another 2 contracts at 2227... I held it all the way till a dangerously looking shooting star appeared and red candles started to form... I exited at 2242 with profits of $1100

total profits = $1500.

Caveat: the reversal trade today is not recommended for novice traders.

Fundamentals:
The rate cut came after a 9-1 vote, with Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig dissenting, arguing that he preferred no change in the funds rate. The Fed on Wednesday also lowered the rate it charges to lend directly to banks, the so-called discount rate.
The bank appeared more upbeat about the health of the economy than it did last month, when it said strains in the credit markets threatened to further pinch the housing market and the economy at large. The Fed said Wednesday that "economic growth was solid in the third quarter, and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat on balance."
Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at The Hartford, said the market decided that the central bank wasn't necessarily ruling out further rate cuts.
"I think that the market finally realized after the initial drop-off that the Fed is saying 'Look, we're going to be data-dependent,'" she said. That would be a return to the Fed's mode of operation before the summer's constriction in the credit markets forced the bank to set aside some of its concerns about inflation.
Krosby added that after giving investors the rate cut, prudence demanded that Fed offer a somewhat cautious statement and address concerns about surging commodity prices. Oil hit another record Wednesday, while gold rose above $800 an ounce for the first time in 27 years.
"I think that upon analysis of it the market understood that you cannot have oil prices hitting almost $95 a barrel. You have to acknowledge commodity prices."
Oil futures climbed to nearly $95 per barrel for the first time after the government reported an unexpected drop in crude oil inventories for the second week in a row. Light, sweet crude rose $4.15 to settle on the New York Mercantile Exchange at $94.53. The dollar fell to a fresh low against the euro after the Fed's decision and gave up ground against other major currencies. With rates lower, some investors looked for higher-yielding currencies.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq Emini 100

Hi,

Market gapped down and started to plunge down... I missed this trade.. on hindsight I should have shorted when it broke the moving averages... But that's easy to say on hindsight...

Today's trade is based on strong technical signals.. Do you see a huge double-bottom? There is strong support at 2154 and a hammer candle stick appeared.. Stochastics and short-term MACD went up at the same time...

I longed 1 contract at 2165 and another 2 more contracts at 2170... Price broke all the way through the moving averages... I exited at 2195 only when stochastics started to turn down... profits of $1200

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq Emini 100

Hi,

Did you managed to capture the fed rate cut? Today's trade is a special situation trade. Market is quiet before the FOMC annoucement and it's pointless to trade in this kind of markets. Everytime there's a FOMC annoucement I won't trade until 2:15 pm when the rates are finally out.

Price immediately shot up on the announcement was out.. I longed 1 contract at 1997 and was almost not in time to go long on another 2 more contracts, I only managed to get in at 2005... After this, it was all plain sailing... just sit and wait.. upward momentum was too strong to be ignored... This basically gave me the signal that price action overide all other indicators... I only exited towards the end at 2032 when stochastics started to turn down a little.. profits $1780.

Fundamentals:
In a bold strike, the Federal Reserve slashed a key interest rate by a half point on Tuesday -- the first cut in over four years -- and left the door open to further relief to prevent a painful housing slump and jarring credit crunch from driving the country into recession.

In a crucial and anxiously awaited decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his central bank colleagues lowered an important interest rate to 4.75 percent. Economic and political pressure has been building on the Fed to act.
As a result, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and other commercial banks dropped their prime lending rate charged to millions of borrowers by a corresponding amount to 7.75 percent.

Whether Bernanke can handle the crisis successfully is the biggest challenge he has faced in his 19 months at the Fed helm.
"Today's action is intended to help forestall some adverse effects on the economy that might otherwise arise from disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time," the Fed said in a statement released after its closed-door meeting.

The Fed's action means borrowers who can obtain credit should see rates drop on a variety of loans. It will become less expensive for people to finance certain credit card debt and for homeowners to take out popular home equity lines of credit, which often are used to pay for education, home improvements or medical bills.

And, it will help some homeowners whose adjustable rate mortgages reset in the fall. Those rates will still go up but not by as much as they otherwise could have, analysts said.The biggest worry is that people and businesses will cut back on their spending and investment, throwing the economy into a tailspin. Tuesday's rate cut is aimed at making sure that doesn't happen.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 8:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's it going? Market gapped up today and never did close below the opening price at any one time... This is very strong price action... If you observed carefully, price is being supported by the opening price... But it hit resistance at the cyan moving average at around 11:00 am... I did not enter the market then..

My chance only came when Stochastics started to turn up from the oversold regions in a double bottom fashion. This is a very rare pattern.. and the risk/reward seems great in this trade, being supported by the high of the opening bar. I longed 1 contract at 1927 and another 2 more contracts at 1938...

Short-term MACD crossed the signal shortly after I entered, confirm the direction of trade.. I held my position all the way till the end and exited at 1960.. notice how Short-term MACD crossed back under the signal line? I made profits of $1540.

Fundamentals:
>Many investors believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next meeting on Sept. 18 or even sooner and were preparing for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to hint at such a move on Friday at a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The possibility of a rate cut has given Wall Street some hope that the stock market will recover from its summer volatility, and that right now, it's a good strategy to buy while the buying is cheap.

News that Bernanke said in a letter to Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., that Fed policymakers are "prepared to act as needed" if the market's turbulence hurts the economy helped pad the market's gain.
The Fed, although it has not yet indicated that it will indeed lower the benchmark fed funds rate, has been adding cash to the banking system in an attempt to keep the credit markets liquid. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Wednesday it would inject $5.25 billion through a one-day repurchase agreement, where it buys that amount in collateral from dealers who then deposit the money into commercial banks.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 8:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

I can't tell you how much I am enjoying these few weeks. Market volatility is up. Fed is moving in.... nothing could be better for day traders...

Market gapped down today by around 15 points. again. this is a big gap down... we would expect market to move in the direction of the gap.. I did not enter the market... I was just monitoring the market...

I entered only upon hearing that the FED injected another $16Billion into the banking system and my stochastics started to turn up.. it seemed apparent that price is going ot close the gap.. I longed 1 contract at 1912 and another 2 more contracts at 1932 when price broke the resistance line formed by today's open... I held it all the way till it hit the moving avearages and bounced back with a red candle.. I exited at 1950 with $1480 profits.

Fundamentals:
The U.S. Federal Reserve provided the banking system with $38 billion on Friday, the largest amount of liquidity since the days after the September 11 attacks six years ago, adding ample funds for the second day running as financial markets fretted over credit conditions.

Before Wall Street's opening bell, the Fed infused $19 billion in a market operation that was conducted more than an hour before its usual time.
By mid afternoon, the Fed conducted two more cash injections -- $16 billion and $3 billion -- a highly unusual but not unprecedented occurrence for a Friday.

The last time the central bank made a similar statement was after the September 11, 2001, terror attacks, when it also said it would do what was necessary to keep markets functioning normally. The Fed made a similar vow in October 1987 following a precipitous decline in U.S. stock markets.

The fed funds rate was trading at 6 percent in early morning trade, but fell back to 5.25 percent shortly after the operation, in line with the target set by the central bank. It was last trading at 5.25 percent.

The Fed said all of the collateral accepted in the 3-day repos on Friday was mortgage-backed debt.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 7:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq Emini 100

Hi there,

How's it going lately? I hope you are enjoying the spike in market volatility as I am.. Traders need volatility to make money.. Market gapped down by close to 30 points today.. This is one of the biggest gaps I have ever seen.. Amazingly market made an attempt to close the gap and it did... I did not trade this... But as soon as it closed the gap, price bounced back... I stayed out of the market... I was unsure of market direction.. there seem to be enough strength to close a 30 point gap but as soon as it closed, it bounced back... this suggest weakness..

I only entered the market when a double top formation became apparent and price broke below the neckline and moving averages... I shorted 1 contract at 1985 and another 2 more contracts at 1975 when there was a slight pullback..

Notice how price broke down the support line established by the open price? After that the support line became a resistance line and price just plunged..

I held my position all the way till market close for a total profits of $1940.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Today is a quiet day before the FED announcement,,, I did not even bother looking at the market.. This morning I was pumping iron at the gym in my home...

As expected.... market volatility picked up as we neared 14:15 ... Market fell immediately when news that FED is leaving rates at 5.25% came out.. I shorted 1 contract at 1965 and another 2 contracts at 1955...
I was in the trade around 30 minutes when price started to turn up... and I instinctively knew the market might turn tables... I reversed my position ( by buying 4 contracts at one go, this netts of my shorting of 3 contracts and leave me 1 contract long) when price hit 1952 which is pretty near the resistance level set by the morning session...

I longed another 2 contracts at 1960 when price appeared to be confirming my trade.. Indeed price momentum was strong as it broke the highs during the morning session and I exited only at 1982 with profits of $1860 in total.

Fundamentals
Although Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his central bank colleagues acknowledged challenges that have intensified since their last meeting in late June, they nonetheless expressed hope that the economy will safely make its way.
The policymakers also clung to their belief that the biggest potential danger to the economy is that inflation won't recede as they anticipate.
Against these economic crosscurrents, the Fed left an important interest rate at 5.25 percent on Tuesday. In turn, commercial banks' prime interest rate for certain credit cards, home equity lines of credit and other loans -- would stay at 8.25 percent.
The central bank's key rate hasn't budged for more than a year. Before that, the Fed had raised rates for two years to fend off inflation.

The Fed policymakers didn't signal that a rate cut -- as an insurance policy against undue economic weakness -- would be imminent. Analysts believe the Fed probably will leave rates alone at its next meeting on Sept. 18. But economists and investors think the odds are growing that the Fed might lower rates by the end of this year, if the economy shows signs of faltering and if inflation isn't worrisome.
"Financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks, credit conditions have become tighter for some households and businesses and the housing correction is ongoing," the Fed said. "Downside risks to growth have increased somewhat," it added.
Even so, policymakers stuck to a forecast that the economy is likely to expand at a moderate pace in coming quarters. They also said they expected "solid growth in employment and incomes" -- vital ingredients to the country's economic health.
The Fed was faced with a delicate dance, analysts said. To maintain credibility, it needed to acknowledge recent market gyrations, fears about a worsening housing slump and worries about a spreading and painful credit crunch. At the same time, it needed to send a comforting message but not be viewed as overly optimistic or pessimistic.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

The market is in a corrective stage now and it's your chance to win big! There is a slight gap of 6 points during market open but it closed almost immediately.. Notice that price did not even manage to go further than the opening price?

1st trade
Stochastics was down and together with the price action, I shorted 1 contract at 2002 and another 2 contracts at 1992 ... I exited only at 1982.5 when there was a white candle stick... This 1st trade pocketed $770 profits.

2nd trade
Pirce broke down the support line at 1980 when it pulled back to the 1980, it bounced down again.. The support line had become a resistance line and I shorted 1 contract at 1976.. when price pulled back to 1970, I shorted another 2 more contracts... Mid-term MACD was also in a nice downward trend... I held my position all the way till the end when I exited at 1947 with profits of $1500.

Total profits = $2270

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

The market gapped down by around 12 points today and its immediately reaction was to close the gap... I waited for the gap to close and that was when things started to get interesting.. The market being in a clear downtrend now did not have enough momentum to go up further... Price rebounded from my moving averages and Stochastics started to turn down.. I shorted 1 contract at 2020...

Price plunged beyond the opening price and I mmediately knew that today's gonna be a down day.. There was a slight pullback at 11:30 and this was a perfect chance for me to short another 2 contracts... I held my position all the way till price hit the support at 1990 and I got out at 1992 with $1280 profits.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

How's it going lately? Market is finally showing some signs of weakness as corporate profits fail expectations...

Today's trade is simple and straight forward...

Market gapped down and tried to cover the gap... I did not play the gap closure.. I was waiting for the opposite to happen... and it did.. .
gap closed but did not go much further beyond that... and at 13:00, price weakness started to show and stochastics started to turn down...

I shorted 1 contract at 2050 and another 2 contracts at 2040.. Notice how Short-term MACD also crossed the zero-line? This is positive affirmation... I held my position all the way till the end when there is some buying pressure and stochastics started to turn up.. I exited at 2018 with profits of $1520.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100 Candlestick

Daily Emini Nasdaq 100 Candlestick

Hi,

How's it going lately? Market's been coming down for the past 2 days .. and volatility is picking up again. As day traders, we need a certain volatility to make money... we can't really make much in a slow ranging market...

Today price rebounded... had I expected it? yes! If you look at the daily chart above, yesterday price dropped to the lower band of the bollinger band... and knowing that this is a strong market, we certainly should expect some kind of rebound... but, this is all just expectations before the trade.. we still have to confirm it with actual market movements..

1st Trade,
My first trade is long... if you read the charts carefully, you will see that there is a hammer candlestick with longer lower whiskers and stochastics is turning up too.. What do you do? LONG!. I longed 1 contract at 1883 and 2 more contracts at 1888... I am aiming more for a whole day rally... however, at around 10:00 am, price momentum started to slow down and I am getting abit uneasy...

I decided to exit at 1895 with profits of $460.. notice that stochastics is already in the overbought region and I couldn't confirm how long it would stay there.. the weak price momentum didn't help much either..

2nd Trade
I had to wait a while for this second trade... price slowed down to a jitter from 11:00 am onwards... but at 13:30,, price broke out of the triangle upwards... this is evidence of strong price momentum... this alone is enough for me to go long... I entered 1 contract at 1896 and another 2 contracts at 1898.. I exited my position only at 1905 when it hit the moving averages and a red candle appeared..

Total profits = $980.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Good fundamental news came out today.. Durable goods data were up and new home sales jumped by 16.2% in April.. When new home sales data were released at 10:00 am. there was a knee-jerk reaction to the news and price shot up..I missed the trade, for a moment, I really thought that the uptrend was almighty and never failing.. we are going to have another all time high again.. But WAIT!

Prices hit my red moving average and started to fall... Shocastic was telling me the same thing too.. I don't care whether the fundamentals are good or if there are good news or not. My TRADER INSTINCT tells me to SHORT! NOT LONG. If market really took those data seriously, price action would be much more swift and we would have broken the moving averages instantly. I went short 1 contract at 1912.. and another 2 contracts at 1905.. At 1905, I was convinced that the market is not going up ( if not going down).

Smooth sailing after that.. all the way till 1888 when a white hammer candlestick appeared and I decided that I've earned enough --> $1160 profits.

Market kept on going down after that, but I missed it.. but it's ok.. I played by my signals and won. That's what counts to me.

Fundamentals
April durable goods new orders were up 0.6%. That was close to the expected 0.9% gain for this volatile number. March was revised upwards to a 5.0% gain. The component breakdown was encouraging as most key categories showed decent growth over the past two months. Business investment may be picking up after a soft period for six months.

New claims for unemployment for the week ended May 19 stayed at a low level of 311,000. Labor market conditions remain tight.

Home Sales Numbers
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that sales of new single-family homes jumped by 16.2 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 981,000 units.

That was the biggest one-month sales gain since a 16.4 percent surge in April 1993. Even with the increase, however, sales are 10.6 percent below the level of a year ago.

The median price of a new home -- the midway point between the costliest and cheapest -- fell to $229,100, a record 11.1 percent below the March level. The price was 10.9 percent below the level of a year ago, the biggest year-over-year price decline since 1970.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,
Core CPI data was released at 8:30 am this morning.. and April was up 0.2%. So is that good? Well, don't ask me, I'm a trader not an economist... According to Briefing.com it's good.. So we go long?

Hardly... Today I made 2 trades... the first trade was short, then followed by a long... normally I don't reverse my trades immediately after exiting.. but today just happens to be such a day ... You will see that my indicators provided the signals... and both entries are perfectly valid...

Trade 1
Stochastics downturned, plus price moved down from moving averages, basically, the moving averages served as resistance above which I placed my stop loss... good risk/reward return...
I shorted 1 contract at 1898 almost at the open and another 2 contracts at 1895 as price plummeted and Short-term MACD cut its signal line... I finally exited at 1889 when stochastic appeared to be turning up.. profits of $300.

Trade 2
I exited at almost the low,, and I was observing the price action... there's a hammer and stochastic appeared to turn up... but I wasn't sure... but then...price action really accelerated in the 1 min chart and I entered 1 contract at 1891... and another 2 contracts at 1894.5 when price paused for a while... after that.. it was simply a matter of keeping my cool and waiting for profits... price surged pass the moving averages cutting through all of them with a huge white candlestick... I finally exited at 1905 when red candles started to appear... $700 profits...

I just happened to caught the Highs and the Lows today... :P total profits = $1000.

From Briefing.com
The April core CPI was up 0.2%. That was in line with economist forecasts but there were hopes of a 0.1% increase. It was up just 0.1% in March, and the April core PPI was 0.0% as reported Friday. A 0.1% increase probably would have given the stock market a solid boost and renewed talk of a potential Fed rate cut just months down the road. It provided the best opportunity on the list of scheduled events to re-invigorate the recent bullish sentiment.

The 0.2% core gain is certainly not bad, and the year-over-year increase now sits at just 2.3%. The trend is steady and the overall rate is not terribly worrisome. It won't alleviate concerns at the Fed, however. They continue to emphasize that inflation is the predominant concern and recently rising energy prices and continued tight labor markets raise the risk that inflation pressures pick up. Today's data won't increase the Fed's inflation concerns, but they won't alleviate them either.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 11:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Nasdaq Emini CandleStick

Hi,

How's is it going? Today the Fed announce their policy and its a good chance to make money.. I hope you had chance to make a big fat profit... cos I did...

You can see how quiet the market is for the whole day before the FED announces their policy... at 14:15 pm.. the verdict's out and they decided to keep rate at 5.25%.. is that good or bad?
CNBC's talking about how the lingo had changed and that inflation's still a concern... blah blah blah..

All I know and can confirm is that my charts tell me that the market's interpreting it as good news... and price shot up!
I longed 1 contract at 1792... and another 2 contracts at 1802.5 when there was a slight pause in upward movements... after that, it was just a smooth ride up, until the market started to pull back a little..
and I exited at 1816... with profits of $1020.

Fundamentals:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 per cent.

Recent indicators have been mixed and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.

Jan. 31 statement: Recent indicators have suggested somewhat firmer economic growth, and some tentative signs of stabilization have appeared in the housing market. Overall, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.

Recent readings on core inflation have been somewhat elevated. Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

Jan. 31 statement: Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months, and inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time. However, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures.

In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

Jan. 31 statement: The Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Nasdaq Emini 100

Hi,

How's it going lately? As you know, there's a spike in volatility. This is evidenced by the more volatile price movements in the market... But is it necessary a bad thing? I don't think so... Day traders like us thrives on volatility... :p

First Trade,
The first trade I executed was a long. This trade requires courage in an environment where price just keeps on gapping down.... But momentum was strong and there was an upturn of stochastics from the oversold region... I entered at 1718 at around 9:35 and another 2 lots at 1720... It went up all the way to 1742 before falling down... I sensed weakness and exited immediately at 1735... with profits of $940..

Second Trade
Notice how price always bounce off the Moving averages ( Black circles), unfortunately, I missed these trades.. but this alerted me to the weakness inherent in the price action and I managed to find chance to short a contract at 1726 at 15:30... I shorted another 2 contracts at 1721.... I exited at 1714 just before the closing bell with $520 profits...

total winnings = $1460.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Nasdaq Emini

Today market plunged..... It opened with a gap down of more than 20 points... Ya, don't expect market to close such a big gap... My hypothesis for the day was for market to fall even further.... There will be some attempts to close the gap and when it fails... market will falls seriously down...

I waited... and price action confirmed my hypothesis... at 12:00,, price started to fall below the morning lows... and I was confortable to short 1 contract at 1799.... there wasn't much movement and an hour later, there was a pullback to the moving averages... I shorted another 2 contracts at 1798... The reason I was confident is because, the market is now overwhelmed with negative sentiments... and the upward price correction didn't seem convincing at all...

Yes, you can see that the trade was smooth sailing... all the way till 3:10 pm... when there was another pullback and I decided that I have earned enough ... profits of $2060..

Reasons for meltdown?
The selling spark came Tuesday across the globe in China, a highflying market with a speculative zeal rivaling the '90s dot-com stock gold rush. Shanghai's benchmark index plunged nearly 9% amid fears the Chinese government was moving to squash speculation in stocks.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Nasdaq Emini 100

Hi,

Yesterday was a holiday.. President's day... so Today's effectively the first trading day of the week. Market opened with a gap down and it even plunged lower.. I made some money by shorting, playing on pure price action and momentum... (not shown in the figure above, this trade is not recommended for beginners)...

But more importantly,, the real deal came at 10:00. when price started to rebound... you can see a hammer at 10:05? yes, that was the start of the rebound... I have to wait for further confirmation before i go long.... Stochastics started to cut from oversold level of 20 and MACD also crossed the signal line... this together with the strong price action was enough for me to go long at 1822..

I longed another 2 contracts at 1825 and you can see strong support given by the moving averages.. the trade's smooth sailing after that... It closed the gap... I was cautious when it closed the gap and expected a rebound... but it busted way far beyond the gap.. I simply let my profits run...

Exit
Price action started to trouble me... no momentum and stochastics and MACD seemed to have peaked.... I exited at 1839.5... with $930 profits...
notice that stochastics turned down from level 80 and MACD crossed its signal line shortly after I exited?

Fundamentals
According to the press, it was Susan Bies who made the market moved... Well,, I didn't know that when I was entering my trade... :p
comments from outgoing Fed Governor Susan Bies, who said the country may be seeing a bottom in slumping demand for housing, alleviated some worries that the downturn will drag down the rest of the economy. Her remarks echoed those of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last week, who predicted that the economy will keep growing at a modest pace.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 2:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Nasdaq 100 Emini

Hi,

How's it going lately? market activity is subdued infront of the FOMC announcements... I did not trade for the morning session... I went for a jog in the morning and walked my dog.. :P...

ya, you guessed,, its a bad idea to trade before important economic announcements... if you get it right, good luck.. if you get it wrong, you know its because market's behaving irrationally before the announcement.. My advice? stay out of it.. simple.

Today's trade? simple again.. I monitored the market at 1415...and had my CNBC switched on... well,, they said FOMC left the rate unchanged at 5.25%... thats good.. but how does that relate to our trading plan? is it going up or down? I don't know... the best way to find out is by observing the market..

I see a huge reaction and a big spike up... hey,,, I know immediately that this must be good.. and I have to go long... I longed 1 contract at 1790... and when it pulled back 10minutes later,, I longed another 2 contracts at 1790 again.. indicators such as MACD (both long term and short term) and stochastics confirmed the move ( orange circles)...

Now its a matter of just waiting for the trade to work up... price rose all the way to 1807... and showed some sluggishness.... confirmed by the indicators again ( green circles)... I got out at 1805 with profits of $900..

Fundamentals:
Like clockwork, Federal Reserve officials emerged from their meeting at 2:15 p.m. Eastern time. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said it would keep the federal funds rate unchanged (at 5.25 percent) for the fifth straight meeting.

advertisementThe accompanying statement, which is always dissected on the Street for nuances and hints of future action, noted that "some inflation risks remain," but was perceptibly more upbeat toward economic growth and inflationary pressures, observing that "readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months." "Recent indicators have suggested somewhat firmer economic growth," the report said, and even referenced the chance of some stabilization in the beleaguered housing market.

For the first time in five meetings, the vote to keep rates steady was unanimous, as previous dissenter Jeffrey Lacker, head of Richmond's Federal Reserve Bank, is currently not a voting member of the FOMC.

Market-watchers were expecting the rate announcement to be a non-event, but the accompanying words of cautious optimism have driven some buying power into the market averages.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Emini Nasdaq 100 Candlesticks

Hi,
After a strong rally yesterday, prices falls again today.. the key? Yes, market is still sensitive to the housing bubble bursting... existing home sales fell to 6.48 million units for all of 2006... supposedly the largest fall in 17 years... The market reacted hugely to this...

I wasn't doing much before 10:00am.. just watching the normal gyrations... it gapped up, closed the gap and appeared to be going higher, until existing home sales figures came out at 10:00am... Price falls a bit,, but it's not enough conviction for me to go short... finally at 10:15... price fell below yesterday's close which is also yesterday's high... I immediately shorted 1 contract at 1813.... market is volatile,,, i still couldn't tell whether price is going to trend downwards all day....

But, at 12:00, after price breaks the moving averages, and there is no sign of rebouncing... I shorted another 2 contracts at 1804.... now the market seems bearish and bent on going further down... At 13:35, I shorted another 2 contracts at 1800... as price falls below 1800 strongly....

At 15:00, price momentum seems to be slowing down and I covered all my shorts at 1789, with a profit of $1520.

Existing Home Sales:
After a five-year boom, the nation’s housing market cooled considerably in 2006 with existing home sales falling by the largest amount in 17 years.
While the worst may be over, the rebound could be slow in coming, analysts said, given a continuing huge backlog of unsold homes that will keep downward pressure on prices, particularly in former boom areas.
The National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that sales of existing homes totaled 6.48 million units for all of 2006, down 8.4 percent from 2005 when 7.08 million existing homes were sold, the fifth straight year that sales hit an all-time high.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Nasdaq Emini 100 Candlestick

Hi,

How's it going? Fundamentalists will tell you that the market is still strong and the recently released economic data suggests that the economy is still in tact, with the housing sector on the rise again....
Well, how's that going to translate into profits for you? If you went long over the past few days, I guarantee that you'd have lost your pants!

From a technical perspective, yes, the long term uptrend is still in tact, but that is when viewed over a daily chart. Even so, the uptrend is slowly down and not drawing a nice straight line... you'd know the market is sick.
Yes, sick.... will oil prices falling that much, the market's not even bulging to the upside... something strange's going on... The alert trader will know better than to go long...

Today market gapped up by around 6 points.... it became apparent to me in the first 5 minutes that this gap is going to close, I was watching the Dow and S&P 100 futures plus the Russell 2000, all showed weakness.. I immediately shorted 1 contract at 1812 and another 2 contracts at 1820 shorting after....

True enough the gap closed at around 9:35... very pretty fast action eh? But I stayed on beyond that... all the markets were displaying weakness and there is no reason to exit too early... market tried to suppport price at the 1805 level,, but finally it gave way and plunged!! Yes! that's the nicest feeling,,, when you see your position snowballing in the profits...

At 10:10,, there was a slight pullback and I thought it's better not to be too greedy... I made enough for the day.. I exit all 3 contracts at 1791 with $1180 profits...

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Nasdaq Emini 100 Candlesticks.

Hi,

The market gapped down today by around 3 points... normally, I would expect such a small gap to close and the Dow is still in positive territory in the first few minutes of market open... However, Nasdaq 100 simply went down..notice that the long term MACD also crossed the zero-line.. This gave me a strong signal to go short... I shorted 1 contract at 1831.... the final break came at 10:00 when price broke below 1830.... and price simply plunged further down all the way ....
there was consolidation at 1820,, but at 12:15... I shorted another 2 contracts at 1817 as price broke down... market seems to be in free fall until 15:00 when there is a slight pullback... I became wary and got ready to exit.... at 15:10, I exited at 1806 with $940 profits....

Bernanke's speech:
Overnight on Wall Street, stocks retreated as hopes of an interest rate cut faded on the back of a guarded speech by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, while muted numbers from Apple (nasdaq: AAPL - news - people ) also weighed on technology stocks.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Nasdaq Emini CandleStick Chart

Hi,

How's it going? I hope you captured this trade. This is a god send! Even from a fundamentals perspective, market sentiments are good. Better than expected payroll numbers is definitely good for stocks in a time when we are worried about a soft landing... You can read more about the fundamentals below:

Do note that, no matter how good the fundamentals, it will not affect my decision to enter or exit a trade. Fundamentals are good only for gauging the overall market sentiments... it is not a parameter for trading....

For today's trade, you can see that I circled a hammer candlestick in the context of a double bottom, this is good enough a signal for entry. This is a strong reversal signal.... Stochastics and MACD also further confirmed by having sharp upturns...

I longed 1 contract at 1775 at 10:25 and another 2 contracts at 10:50 at 1779 when the MId-term MACD crossed its moving average further confirming the uptrend.. My profit target? Naturally it is at 1800.. this is a psychological resistance line and a strong one at that. .. At 11:30, my profit target was hit and I am out with $940 profits... You can see how price went down immediately after hitting 1800... Lesson ? --> Don't be too greedy.

Fundamental news from Briefing.com:
November payrolls increased 132,000. This was higher than the expected 100,000 gain. There was also a net upward revision of 42,000 to the two prior months. This leaves that level of payrolls 74,000 above what had been expected. The average monthly gain over the past three months is 138,000. That doesn't qualify as a boom, but it isn't exactly a recession either.

Payrolls are growing at a steady 1% to 1 1/4% annual rate. That will keep consumer spending rising at a decent clip, especially as there is also moderate wage growth.

Hourly earnings for November were up 0.2%. This is less than the expected 0.3% and follows a 0.4% October increase. The year-over-year increase is now 4.1%. This is not too hot to cause significant inflationary pressures, and not so cold as to restrain consumer spending.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 4:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 minutes Nasdaq 100 Emini

Daily Nasdaq 100 Emini

Hi,

How's it going, news of holiday season and traders dumping the dollar sent the markets plunging... Well, if you ask me, this is not surprising... given that the markets has been up for a few months already... This is just a minor correction.. If you look at the daily charts, the long term trend is still up and this correction is not enough to say that the uptrend has ended...

With that in mind, as day traders, we have to capitalize on short term trends instead of long term trends... Today is a shorting day. BUT, do so cautiously,,, since technically, the long term trend is still up....

At 9:50, I shorted 1 contract at 1810,,, notice that the mid-term MACD has already crossed the zero line. This is a powerful signal to go short.
At 10:10 I shorted another 2 contracts at 1805....... and everything seems to be going welll..
At around 11:00 am... I am thinking whether I should close my position,, but price action seems strong.... and I let it swim...
At 12:35,, I closed my positions at $1300, when Mid-term MACD crossed the smoothed MACD line ( shown in red circle). ...

Will this plunge continue or will market prove resilient and continue in the uptrend again? We have to be cautious tomorrow.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min Emini Nasdaq 100

Hi,

Finally, today was a good day.. Frankly speaking, when the market opened with a gap down today.... I expected the market to continue its its trend downwards...

but... From 11:00,, it started to rally,,, it moved up to close the gap... but I still didn't bulge.. because I was unsure....
At 12:15 when it finally cut the moving averages... I knew the market is goign to go up and I immediately longed 1 contract at 1574.5.... there was a slight pullback at 1580 and I longed another 2 contracts...

I set my profit target at 1590 and my stop loss at 1572, just below the moving averages....

Finally at 13:25, my profit target was reached and I am out with $710... a big win!

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 min NASDAQ Candlestick Chart.

Dear Trader,
How's it going? The market is in a down turn these few days. It only makes more sense to go short than long. Although market opened with a gap down today, price moved further down before closing the gap. I wasn't in the market. I was waiting for the gap to close and for price to bounce right back down. and BINGO! at 12:30, the gap was closed and price shot sharply down from the moving averages, stochastic and MACD also shot down from the overbought regions. This is exactly what I envisioned. I shorted one contract at 1517 and another 2 at 1510. My stop loss was at 1520, pretty tight. Because I want to be out as soon as possible if I am wrong. After my entry, price was moving in my favor and I did not put a price target, I wanted to eat the full wave of it. However, at 14:00 pm there was a slight pull back and I knew the down trend is comign to an end. I put my profit target at 1495 and at 14:40 my profit target was hit and I am out with $1040 in profits. It's days like these that keeps me going!

Posted by Michael Taylor at 5:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

5 Minutes Nasdaq 100 Emini Candlestick Chart

Hi,

Today is a big day. Price really moved. How can I be so sure that it is really moving up? One very clear signal is that MACD in all 3 time frames moved in unison to cross the zero line. Nothing can be more powerful than that. I longed 1 contract at 1578 and another 2 at 1584 with my profit target at 1600.. Price action began to weaken before it hit 1600 and I took profits at 1596.5. That is still a whopping $1370 for me in less than 3 hours of work.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 3:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Dear trader, the market has been in a downward trend for the past few days, I hope you are doing more shorting than you are long. If you followed my advice to short, you'd have captured some major moves and nice trends downwards. Today is such a day. Until 12:00am. I still couldn't tell where the market was going although I knew that it has a downward bias. At 12:00 am. NQ touched one of my moving averages and immediately reflected from it. This is a bearish signal and RSI was also at the overbought region, giving additional evidence to shorting. I shorted 1 contract at 1549 and another 2 at 1542 when price broke down again. My profit target was at 1525 which was around the low of the previous day. I intentionally set my profit target further as there was enough momentum to bring it down. At 3:30 pm, I was out with $1160.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 6:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Dear Trader,

How's it going lately? Market is going for a roller coaster ride as various important news release comes into the market. The ECB announcement was at 7:45 EST and we can see the effect of this by the gap of Nasdaq 100 at the open at 9:30. There was a false move upwards in an attempt to cover the gap. In fact, it went beyond the gap to touch the moving averages and began sliding down again. The market is in a down turn now and it makes sense to short it. I shorted 1 contract at 1565 and another 2 at 1554, there was enough momentum and I placed my target quite far away at 1540. However, later as the price continued to fall, I shifted my profit target further to 1537. The trade was effortless. Within 2 hours, I won $1240.

Posted by Michael Taylor at 4:18 PM | Permalink | Co